terracinque: (Kim Doonesbury)
[personal profile] terracinque
Georgia Early Voting Statistics as of October 24, 2008

Number of ballots cast: 967,210
Turn out Demographics:
Black Female 213,686
Black Male 129,116
White Female 324,076
White Male 263,154
Asia-PI Female 2,300
Asia-PI Male 1,692
Hisp-Lt Female 2,909
Hisp-Lt Male 2,304
Native AM Female 67
Native AM Male 70
Other 27,836
Total 967,210

Those raw numbers become these percentages:

Blacks: 342802 or 35.44%
Whites: 587230 or 60.71%
Asian-PI: 3992 or 0.41%
Hispanic/Latino: 5213 or 0.5%
Native American: 137 or 0.00142%
All other voters: 27836 or 2.9%

I've calculated the likely Georgia vote for Obama, based on the above.

African-American voters are expected to turn out at a rate of 95% for Obama,* so:

Blacks for Obama: 95% of 342802 or 33.67% of the total vote.

Georgia Caucasians turned out at a rate of 77% for Bush in 2004. That leaves 23% for Obama:

Whites for Obama: 23% of 587230 or 13.96%

For non-white non-black voters, I have no idea how they're likely to vote. I assume Asians are slightly more Democratic than whites and Latinos are heavily more so, but I really don't know. The total of these voters is so small anyway, I decided to just split them right down the middle.

All other voters for Obama: 50% of 33186 or 1.9%

Total for Obama: 49.53% of the vote.

Room for error:

1. Whites probably won't vote for McCain at the same high rate as they did for Bush in 2004. Obama will probably get more than 23% of the white vote.

2. Cuban-Americans are heavily Republican, Mexican-Americans are heavily Democratic. Korean-Americans and Filipino-Americans are heavily Republican. Most other minorities are heavily Democratic. So Obama is likely to win much more than 50% of that 1.9%. That still won't be many voters, but then 49.53% isn't far from a majority either.

3. I'm assuming early-voting demographics will be the same as Election Day demographics. I don't think that's correct; my understanding is that this year the early voters have been skewing Democratic. For example, right now blacks are 35% of the Georgia electorate, even though they're only 27% of the state's population, and have never been more than 29% of the electorate in the past.

Still. It's really close, and the momentum is all on Obama's side. I'm going to go ahead and predict an Obama victory in Georgia on November 4th.

Even if I'm wrong about that, the mere fact that Obama is in such close contention in Georgia indicates that McCain is in big, big trouble nationally. Obama will win the Presidency by a landslide.

Now my mind is at ease about changes in the Supreme Court over the next four years. I'll move on to worrying that Proposition 8 will pass in California.

* I don't have cites for any claims in this post; I found all my info through Google somewhere. I figure that's good enough for my BOE calculations.

Date: 2008-10-26 10:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] wiebke.livejournal.com
Number-crunching -- I like it.

Agree, if things are this close here, less swing-y states are surely going for Obama.

I bet even my snooty hometown in Massachusetts, an island of Republicanism in a sea of Blue, goes for Obama.

Date: 2008-10-26 10:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] karlgrenze.livejournal.com
Assuming all the people that want Obama to be president actually go to vote, and don't rest on their laurels... or that they can take time off of work or class to go vote (I'm thinking of minorities/students here).

Date: 2008-10-26 11:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] stochasticgirl.livejournal.com
Nice analysis!

Date: 2008-10-27 03:10 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] terracinque.livejournal.com
Thanks! I made this post public if you want to share it.

Date: 2008-10-26 11:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] opalcat.livejournal.com
God, let's hope so, eh?

Date: 2008-10-27 12:45 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cartierobert.livejournal.com
It does seem to be the way the wind is blowing...

Date: 2008-10-27 01:27 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] petermarcus.livejournal.com
Not to mention Prop 2 here in Florida. Happily, the last election forced Florida constitutional amendments to require 60% of the popular vote instead of 50%, and I don't think the traditionalists have 60%.

Date: 2008-10-27 07:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dustyskinandall.livejournal.com
Thank you for reminding me to check on where I need to go to vote early. Turns out there's a place right across the street from me!

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